We overestimate our skill at decision making. We’re pretty bad, and bias isn’t the only reason. Daniel Kahneman joins Vasant Dhar in episode 21 of Brave New World to shed light on the problem of Noise, and what we can do about it.
1. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement — Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein.
2. Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman.
3. Dissecting “Noise” — Vasant Dhar.
4. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
5. Herbert A Simon on Amazon.